仇国芳,王小宁
Qiu Guofang,Wang Xiaoning

• 1:西安建筑科技大学管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

人口众多与医疗资源不均衡加剧了看病难问题,分级诊疗是我国医疗改革的重要举措之一.通过引入三支决策理论,将分级诊疗分为就诊、住院观察和转院3个决策类型,在考虑患者分诊风险的基础上,利用贝叶斯理论求得决策阈值,从而给出了分级诊疗的定量决策方法,通过实例验证了三支决策在分级诊疗决策研究中的可行性.
The problem of difficulty in seeing a doctor is exacerbated by the large population and unbalanced medical resources.Grading medical diagnosis and treatment from classification of patients is one of the important polices in China's health care reform.This paper introduces theory of three-way decisions into grading medical diagnosis and treatment.Three hierarchical medical diagnosis and treatment are called outpatient,hospitalization,and transferring to other hospital.Based on the treatment risk of patients,we use Bayesian theory to obtain the decision threshold from three-way decisions.Thus a kind of quantitative decision-making method is constructed and its feasibility is illustrated by a medical example.

关键词(KeyWords)： 资源配置;分级诊疗;三支决策;贝叶斯决策
resource allocation;grading diagnosis and treatment;three-way decision;Bayesian theory

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 陕西省自然科学基础研究项目(2015JM7363);; 教育部人文社科基金(12YJA630019)

作者(Author): 仇国芳,王小宁
Qiu Guofang,Wang Xiaoning

DOI: 10.16366/j.cnki.1000-2367.2018.03.018

参考文献(References)：

• [1]邓峰,高建民.我国医疗资源与利用相关情况回顾分析[J].中国卫生经济,2013,32(2):83-85.
• [2]陈妍,周文慧,华中生,单汨源.面向延时敏感患者的转诊系统定价与能力规划[J].管理科学学报,2015,18(4):73-83.
• [3]王帆.基于分级诊疗体系的基层医疗服务改革探讨[J].长沙民政职业技术学院学报,2015,22(2):6-9.
• [4]高和荣.健康治理与中国分级诊疗制度[J].公共管理学报,2017,14(2):139-144.
• [5]李菲.我国医疗服务分级诊疗的具体路径及实践程度分析[J].中州学刊,2014(11):90-95.
• [6]李银才.价值链与分级诊疗形成机制改革[J].卫生经济研究,2016(8):16-19.
• [7]李显文.对我国分级诊疗模式相关问题的思考[J].卫生经济研究,2015(3):18-20.
• [8]于洪,李天瑞,姚一豫,等.三支决策:复杂问题求解方法与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
• [9]Yao Y Y.Three-way decisions with probabilistic rough sets[J].Information Sciences,2010,180(3):341-353.
• [10]Zhao Y,Wong S K M,Yao Y Y.Attribute reduction in decision-theoretic rough set models[J].Info-Rmation Sciences,2013,178(17):3356-3373.
• [11]孟超,余建坤.三支决策与决策粗糙集融合模型[J].计算机系统应用,2016,25(04):174-179.
• [12]史进玲,张全友,杜根远.基于风险最小化的多粒度三支决策模型[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(2):101-107.
• [13]Yao Yiyu.Three-way decisions with probabilistic rough sets[J].Information Sciences,2010,180(3):341-353.
• [14]邓晓飞,王洪凯,姚一豫.基于三支决策的自适应粗糙集近似[C]//贾修一,商琳,李天瑞,等.三支决策理论与应用.南京:南京大学出版社,2012:118-130.
• [15]Deng X F,Yao Y Y.Decision-theoretic three-way approximations of fuzzy sets[J].Information Sciences,2014(279):702-715.
• [16]徐天应,干晓蓉.基于二元语义与粗糙集的多属性决策方法[J].统计与决策,2014(1):27-29.